Brilliant Carlton skipper Chris Judd is a red-hot chance to win his third Brownlow medal. Make that white-hot. You’ve sent the odds, the odds-on. But short favourites do not always win. Chris might not be awarded votes freely as he did last year, when he polled best on ground in a nine-goal Carlton loss. And there are a number of big competitors for the honour with claims just as strong as the midfield master.
Firstly, and close to home – witness the similarity between the short priced favourite last year, Dane Swan, and the rise in 2011 of Marc Murphy. Swan was very unlucky to run second last year with 24 votes, when he polled eight two votes, and was elected best on ground only twice. Teammate Scott Pendlebury (21 votes) was named BOG four times.
It is possible that Marc Murphy could steal votes off Judd in a similar manner. Most pundits concede that Murphy is a chance at some sort of vote in more games than the bald leader. If the smooth-moving distributor sneaks a few more three votes than expected, Judd may be running second, not first.
Dean Cox has had a brilliant season, and could easily overturn the recent bias against big men, especially since he is effectively an ‘extra’ midfielder, and there are several other superstars who havee had stellar seasons.
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